If you lived through the Cold War, then you might remember The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ “Doomsday Clock.” When this clock theoretically “struck midnight,” then WWIII and Mutually Assured Destruction would be at hand.
The clock started out at 11:53 PM in 1947, and reached 11:58 when the Soviet Union first revealed its nuclear capabilities in 1953. It was then set “all the way back to 11:43″ in 1991 … when the USSR collapsed, and both sides (well: the Soviet side, at least) began major de-escalations of their nuclear capabilities.
Although I hadn’t even considered the Doomsday Clock since then, it looks like it’s still around. What’s more: it’s including more than just nuclear bombs when considering the end of human civilization … !
On Jan. 17, the Bulletin considered “new” nuclear powers since the Cold War (e.g. Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, and – thanks to lax post-Cold-War security throughout the former Soviet Union - who-knows-WHERE-else?!) and moved the Doomsday Clock back up to 11:55 PM.
What’s more, Bulletin Director Kennette Benedict added that “The dangers posed by climate change are nearly as dire as those posed by nuclear weapons.”
Not yet convinced? How about Stephen W. Hawking, the renowned cosmologist and mathematician, who told the AP that global warming has eclipsed other threats to the planet, such as terrorism. “Terror only kills hundreds or thousands of people,” Hawking said. “Global warming could kill millions. We should have a war on global warming rather than the war on terror.”
The above quotes are from the full story where I first heard about this. You can read the rest of it at http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1103AP_Britain_Doomsday_Clock.html.
I remember a few informal conversations back in the 80s about whether the World would end “with a bang or a whimper.” The “bang” would be an all-out nuclear war, while the “whimper” could’ve been anything from the Sun dying out to us drowning in our own poisons.
As ominous a development as I feel global warming has become, I honestly never considered it to be so bad as to be included in the Doomsday Clock scenario. I not only feel the need to thank the Bulletin for keeping the Doomsday Clock around, but for “promoting” global warming to this new (or at least newly-perceived) level of seriousness.
I too must admit to thinking in too short of a time frame. Most of us thought the “bang” of a nuclear war that we feared for nearly half a century would’ve only lasted a few hours at most. Even now, if al Qaeda were able to carry out their most apocalyptic plans, nuclear terrorism would’ve lasted a few minutes at a time: an occasional ”boom” here and there, but probably nothing anywhere near what the Americans & Russians could still do to each other.
In order to include global warming in the Doomsday-Clock scenario, however, you need to start thinking of long periods (i.e. years, decades, etc.) of environmental degradation, interspersed with the occasional Hurricane Katrina or other “natural disaster that can fit neatly into one or two news cycles.” I thank the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists for providing us with this additional perspective on global warming, and the additional ways in which human civilization can end human civilization.
